I recently did a “2019 Investment Outlook” webinar with my business partner Steve Blumenthal. We looked at three topics: recession probability, credit conditions, and stock valuations. I can tell, we ...

David F Hendry receives funding from the Open Society Foundations and the Oxford Martin School. Grayham Mizon has received funding from Economic and Social Research Council. Unpredictability is ...

The range of forecasts is wide, but economists generally see a rising probability that the U.S. economy will shrink. By Isabella Simonetti and Jason Karaian High inflation, rising interest rates, ...

China faces a "meaningful probability" of a hard economic landing and the euro zone is storing up problems for the future by not tackling the debt crisis head on, said Nouriel Roubini, the economist ...

David Solomon on Tuesday discussed the probability of the U.S. economy experiencing a soft landing. "What I’d say is, while it’s still very, very uncertain, the consensus has shifted to be a little ...

NEW YORK, Feb. 20, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Panelists for the latest Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators found that while worry over a U.S. recession has diminished somewhat, the economy is ...

The U.S. economy falling into recession within the next 12 months is a virtual certainty, according to the latest Bloomberg Economics forecast model released on Monday. The dire projection surfaced ...

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former derivatives trader, is a distinguished professor of risk engineering at Polytechnic Institute of New York University. He is the author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of ...

Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.